TrovaGene Inc. TROV is scheduled to report third-quarter 2015 earnings results on Nov 9. Last quarter, the company reported a loss of 28 cents per share, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate by four cents (16.67%).
Notably, the company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four consecutive quarters, with an average miss of -13.55%.
Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors Influencing This Quarter
We believe that the company’s quarterly results will depend on the adoption rate of its Precision Cancer Monitoring (PCM) technology. As demonstrated by different ongoing clinical study results, PCM’s superiority in detecting ctDNA in urine samples as compared to traditional procedures is a major attraction for oncologists.
TrovaGene is currently part of more than 15 clinical collaborations, which aim at evaluating the efficiency of the PCM system in detecting and monitoring different mutations related to pancreatic, melanoma (advanced skin cancer), colorectal and lung cancer. We also note that TrovaGene’s growing relationship with leading cancer centers (top 20) is significantly encouraging.
In September this year, TrovaGene presented data from the clinical trial of its urine-based HPV HR Test. The results clearly demonstrated that the HPV HR Test is equally capable of detecting high-risk HPV when compared to traditional cervical cancer tests.
We believe the convenience of urine samples instead of biopsy or invasive procedures will boost adoption of the HPV HR test among oncologists for cervical cancer screening. Notably, TrovaGene’s non-invasive, cell-free technology is cost efficient. This will help the company expand its footprint in the underpenetrated regions of China, India, Latin America and Eastern Europe.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that TrovaGene is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: TrovaGene has a 0.00% ESP. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 28 cents.
Zacks Rank: TrovaGene carries a Zacks Rank #3, which when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
We caution against stocks with a Zacks Ranks #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Opko Health OPK has an Earnings ESP of +100% and a Zacks Rank #2.
CoLucid Pharmaceuticals CLCD has an Earnings ESP of +11.27% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Intercept Pharmaceuticals ICPT has an Earnings ESP of +1.54% and a Zacks Rank #2.
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