The stock market continues to be plagued by headwinds, making it difficult for investors to sketch a profitable investment strategy. Concerns related to the Chinese economy, still low oil prices and the persistent low rate environment continues to play dominant factors while reaching investment decisions.
As the U.S. economy is braving challenges amid the global macro headwinds, market volatility is expected to persist in the near term. Notably, the S&P 500 gained 8.3% month to date while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 8.5%.
Factors at Play
On Thursday, the "advance" estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for price changes, slowed to an annual rate of 1.5% in the third quarter of 2015, down from 3.9% growth recorded in the second quarter. The decline reflected a fall in private inventory investment primarily in wholesale trade and in manufacturing. Nevertheless, on a positive note, consumer spending increased, primarily reflecting increased spending in health care services as well as nondurable and durable goods.
Separately, the National Association of Realtors reported that the Pending Home Sales Index dropped to the second lowest reading this year. This index dropped 2.3% to 106.8 in September from the August figure of 109.3, which was revised downward. However, the index is up 3% year on year and marked the 13th consecutive month of year-on-year increase.
Reaffirming the current 0–0.25% interest rate, the Oct 28 release of the U.S. Federal Reserve acknowledged the expanding economic activity in the U.S at a “moderate pace” with an improving housing sector. The labor market continues to recover despite a slowdown in the pace of job growth. A rate hike in December is likely in the cards as the release highlighted “In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”
Regarding the Chinese economy, factory activity of China declined at a slower pace in October, though it was the eighth consecutive month of contraction, according to a private survey. The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), a metric for the country’s manufacturing activity, edged up to 48.3 in October from 47.2 in September, per the data released on Monday by Caixin Media Co. and research firm Markit. Notably, a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The Caixin survey comes just a day after the release of the China’s official PMI for October, which remained unchanged from the previous month at 49.8.
Given such a backdrop, we believe it is time for investors to readjust the investment portfolio in order to capitalize on the positives. Adding stocks with low PE and strong momentum seems to be a good strategy now.
The Right Picks
Momentum traders and investors look to take advantage of upward trends or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings. A great way to pick momentum stocks is by analyzing the short-term price activity. In addition to this, lower P/E ratio adds further prospects.
With the help of our new style score system, we have selected stocks with Zacks Momentum Style Score ‘A’ with price movement of more than 10% in the past 4 weeks. These stocks carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and are currently trading at a Price/Earnings (F1) ratio of less than 12. Also, we have considered EPS estimate revisions of more than 1% in the past 4 weeks for the current year.
Here are the five stocks that met the criteria:
American Airlines Group Inc. AAL: The company was formed following the December 2013 merger between AMR (American Airlines' parent group, which was founded in 1934) and US Airways. The merger, which took place after a bankruptcy filing by American Airlines, resulted in the formation of the largest airline internationally. Interestingly, the carrier has been making substantial profits ever since the merger took place. Based in Texas, the carrier operates more than 6,700 daily flights to over 330 destinations in more than 50 nations across the globe from its hub.
Momentum Score: ‘A’
Zacks Rank: 2
P/E Multiple: 5.15
Price Change in the Past 4 Weeks : 19.03%
EPS estimate revisions for the Current Year: 2.04%
General Motors Company GM: The Detroit-based company, originally incorporated in 1908, is a leading global automotive company. Due to the unfavorable economic conditions and a rapid decline in sales, the company filed voluntary petitions for relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code on Jun 1, 2009. Pursuant to this, the New GM was formed by acquiring most of the assets and assuming certain liabilities of the Old GM, and some of its direct and indirect subsidiaries.
GM, along with its strategic partners, produces, sells and services cars, trucks and parts under four core brands – Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac. GM assembles passenger cars, crossover vehicles, light trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), vans and other vehicles.
Momentum Score: ‘A’
Zacks Rank: 2
P/E Multiple: 7.30
Price Change in the Past 4 Weeks : 16.29%
EPS estimate revisions for the Current Year: 5.39%
The Travelers Companies, Inc. TRV: Based in New York, the company is engaged in providing a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to clients including businesses, government units, associations, and individuals in the Unites States and select international markets. In addition, the company meets insurance needs in more than 90 countries worldwide through its network of insurers.
Momentum Score: ‘A’
Zacks Rank: 2
P/E Multiple: 10.84
Price Change in the Past 4 Weeks : 13.42%
EPS estimate revisions for the Current Year: 6.65%
Northern Tier Energy LP NTI: Based in Arizona, the company is an independent downstream energy company with refining, retail and pipeline operations that serve the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) II region of the U.S. It operates its assets in two business segments: the refining business and the retail business.
Momentum Score: ‘A’
Zacks Rank: 2
P/E Multiple: 6.70
Price Change in the Past 4 Weeks : 17.72%
EPS estimate revisions for the Current Year: 3.58%
Hawaiian Holdings Inc. HA: Based in Hawaii, the company through its subsidiary, Hawaiian Airlines, Inc., provides scheduled air transportation of passengers and cargo. It daily services on routes lying between the state of Hawaii and Los Angeles, Oakland, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, and San Jose, California; Las Vegas, Nevada; Phoenix, Arizona; Portland, Oregon; and Seattle, Washington. The company also offers daily services on its international routes.
Momentum Score: ‘A’
Zacks Rank: 1
P/E Multiple: 11.35
Price Change in the Past 4 Weeks : 40.60%
EPS estimate revisions for the Current Year: 11.94%
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