Concerns about China’s economic growth and the timing of the Fed’s rate hike resulted in turmoil in the financial markets during August and September. However, the broader markets bounced back in October, which has a rather spooky reputation of not being an investor-friendly month.
China’s move to cut borrowing rates and the ECB’s hint to extend its quantitative easing program helped benchmarks post their biggest monthly gain in October in four years. Another catalyst behind October’s rise was the Fed indicating a rate hike possibility in December, provided the economy is strong enough to sustain it.
Gains in energy stocks following a strong rebound in oil prices also boosted the broader markets during the month. Strong quarterly earnings in the tech sector too helped benchmarks propel into positive territory in October following two rocky months.
Banking on the positive momentum in October, major indexes should continue their winning run in November. Moreover, history shows that from November through April each year, the financial markets have consistently outperformed returns over the period from May to October.
However, disappointing economic data continues to weigh on the broader markets. Economic data from retail sales to core durable goods all suggested that the U.S. economy is hitting a soft patch. Moreover, the third quarter U.S. GDP slowed down, while consumer spending recorded its smallest increase in September since January. Hence, in this scenario, it will be prudent to invest in value stocks in November as they are poised to gain in value once the broader market recognizes their full potential.
Let's now look into the factors that have boosted the markets:
China & ECB Stimulus Measures
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that they reduced the key rates in order to boost the economy, which is on the verge of recording its lowest annual growth rate of below 7% in 25 years. PBOC reduced the one-year benchmark bank lending rate and one-year benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% and 1.5%, respectively. This was the sixth time in less than a year when the bank opted for a rate cut.
The reserve requirement ratio was also reduced by 50 basis points. China’s monetary stimulus initiative came following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) indication to extend stimulus measures. ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the central bank could expand its quantitative easing measures, including a further cut to the deposit rate, at its December meeting. He would re-examine the monetary policy since he believes that economic recovery and inflation in the Euro zone will be adversely affected by slow growth in emerging economies.
Fed Rate Hike
The Fed indicated that there is a possibility of a liftoff in December provided the economy is strong enough to bear it. The Fed stated: "In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the committee will assess progress — both realized and expected — toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation." It kept the rate unchanged in its latest meeting with nine out of 10 members voting against a liftoff.
The Fed’s view regarding the pace of growth of consumer expenditure and business fixed investment was upgraded to “solid” from "increasing moderately." However, there were some concerns about the labor market condition. The Fed remained confident of achieving the 2% inflation rate target in the medium term. It said that the economy is growing at a “moderate” rate and looked less concerned about the global slowdown and volatility in financial markets.
Energy Shares Gain on Rebound in Oil Prices
A rally among commodity producers in October helped benchmarks post record monthly gains. While, for the month, the materials shares gained the most among the S&P 500 sectors, energy shares turned out to be the second highest gainer.
Energy shares gained due to a rise in oil prices. The continuous decline in the U.S. oil rig count was the main reason behind the oil price recovery. Russia’s willingness to meet major oil producers to discuss the present oil market scenario and a rally in U.S. gasoline prices also had a positive impact on global oil prices.
Positive Tech Earnings
Most of the gains over the past month have come from large publicly traded tech companies, including Apple Inc. AAPL, Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, Microsoft Corporation MSFT and Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN.
Apple Inc. announced a 38% year-on-year increase in fiscal fourth quarter earnings per share to $1.96, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.88. Alphabet also declared third quarter earnings per share of $5.73, up 16.2% year on year. Microsoft too announced fiscal first quarter earnings per share of 67 cents that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents. Additionally, Amazon.com reported third quarter earnings per share of 17 cents, in contrast to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss per share of 10 cents.
5 Value Picks for November
Given these positive factors, it is expected that the broader markets will continue to have a good run in November. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained 7.1% on an average during the November to April cycle, well above the average 1.4% return during the May to October period. However, Friday’s late selling revealed that some of the positive momentum might have faded heading into November. Weaker report on consumer spending and consumer sentiment weighed on benchmarks on Friday.
Nevertheless, since the long term holds well for stocks, despite this initial hiccup, it will be a wise decision to invest in value stocks this month. Value investing offers an opportunity to enter the market and grab stocks that have otherwise been overlooked by a majority of investors, and are thus trading at cheap multiples.
Thanks to our new style score system we have been able to identify value stocks which have incredible potential in the near term. Our research shows that stocks with Value Style Scores of ‘A’ when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) offer the best investment opportunities in the value investing space.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL is primarily engaged in the operation and development of the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store restaurant. CBRL holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a Value Style Score of ‘A.’ The forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the current financial year (F1) is 18.94.
Cirrus Logic Inc. CRUS is a premier supplier of analog circuits and advanced mixed-signal chip solutions. CRUS holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a Value Style Score of ‘A.’ It has a P/E (F1) of 13.98x.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI is the world's largest casual dining restaurant company based on market share. DRI holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a Value Style Score of ‘A.’ It has a P/E (F1) of 19.07x.
Hawaiian Holdings Inc. HA is a holding company of Hawaiian Airlines, which is engaged primarily in the scheduled transportation of passengers, cargo and mail. HA holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a Value Style Score of ‘A.’ It has a P/E (F1) of 11.35x.
AT&T, Inc. T is a premier communications holding company. T holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a Value Style Score of ‘A.’ It has a P/E (F1) of 12.40x.
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