BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. BDSI is scheduled to report second-quarter 2015 results on Aug 10, before the opening bell. BioDelivery’s performance so far has been disappointing with the company beating expectations only in one of the last four quarters with an average negative earnings surprise of 35.50%.
In the last reported quarter, BioDelivery had delivered a positive earnings surprise of 20.00%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for the second quarter of 2015.
Factors to Consider this Quarter
Performance of BioDelivery’s recently launched drug, Bunavail (the only buccal film delivery system for the maintenance treatment of opioid dependence), will be the key area of focus in the second quarter of 2015. Bunavail, which has been in the U.S. market since Nov 2014, has recorded slower-than-expected initial sales. However, the company is trying to increase awareness regarding the drug by expanding the product’s reach through contracting, Medicaid formulary additions and by pharmacy stocking. Sales are expected to pick up in the second half of 2015.
Investor focus will also remain on updates related to the company’s life cycle management plans for Bunavail.
Belbuca, BioDelivery’s lead pipeline candidate, is currently under FDA review for the management of pain severe enough to require daily, round-the-clock, long-term opioid treatment and for which alternative treatment options are inadequate. A response should be out by Oct 23. The company has a licensing and development agreement with Endo International plc ENDP for Belbuca.
Investor focus will remain on its approval status and other pipeline related updates.
BioDelivery could see a rise in operating expenses in the second quarter of 2015 due to the ongoing commercialization of Bunavail and continued investment in pipeline.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that BioDelivery is likely to beat expectations because it has the right combination of two key ingredients – a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to post an earnings beat.
Positive ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +6.45%. This is a meaningful indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for the shares.
Zacks Rank: The combination of BioDelivery’s Zacks Rank #3 and +6.45% ESP makes us confident that the company will beat expectations this season.
We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Other Stocks to Consider
BioDelivery is not the only firm looking up this earnings season. Here are a few health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. INO has an Earnings ESP of +275.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 10.
Immune Design Corp. IMDZ has an Earnings ESP of +20.41% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 12.
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