Will Keryx (KERX) Miss Estimates This Earnings Season?

Zacks

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. KERX is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2015 results on Aug 5.

Keryx’s track record has not been impressive. Over the last four trailing quarters, the company posted an average negative earnings surprise of 15.22%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Influencing This Quarter

Keryx’s top line comprises license revenue and revenues earned from Auryxia sales. Although Auryxia (control of serum phosphorus levels in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) will continue to drive revenues at Keryx, we remind investors that the company is solely dependent on the drug for growth.

Currently, the company is working on label expansion of Auryxia. The company is conducting a pivotal phase III study on Auryxia for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in patients suffering from stage 3-5 non-dialysis dependent CKD. Patient enrolment in this study is expected to be completed by year-end. The company is planning to submit a supplemental new drug application to the FDA for Auryxia in the first half of 2016, provided the study is successful. We expect updates from the company in this front.

Auryxia is under review in the EU for the treatment of patients suffering from CKD, (both including dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis dependent) with a response from the European Medicines Agency expected shortly.

Keryx may face an increase in selling, general and administrative expenses in the second quarter of 2015 due to a rise in expenditures for activities related to the commercialization of Auryxia.

Moreover, reimbursement for Auryxia was limited during the first quarter. Keryx stated on its first-quarter call that the company is in discussions with the regulatory authority for five top Part D plans, with decisions expected in third-quarter 2015.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Keryx is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00% since both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 26 cents.

Zacks Rank: Keryx carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). The company’s Earnings ESP of 0.00%, when combined with a Zacks Rank #4, makes surprise prediction difficult.

Stocks You May Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Mylan MYL has an Earnings ESP of +1.15% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 6.

Epizyme, Inc. EPZM has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company is slated to release second-quarter results on Aug 6.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. INO has an Earnings ESP of +275.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to release second-quarter results on Aug 10.

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