BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. BMRN will be reporting second quarter 2015 earnings on Aug 3 after the market closes.
BioMarin’s track record has been pretty good, with the company reporting narrower-than-expected loss in each of the trailing four quarters with an average beat of 46%. Last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 52.83%.
Vimizim to Drive Sales
Recently launched Vimizim should continue performing well with the company launching the product in additional markets and identifying more Morquio A patients. At the time of reporting first quarter results, BioMarin had raised its guidance for Vimizim to $200–$220 million from $170–$200 million.
Other key products, including Naglazyme, Aldurazyme and Firdapse should continue to perform well. Naglazyme should continue to grow on the back of increasing demand resulting from patient growth and high rates of compliance.
Headwinds remain in the form of negative currency movements as well as lumpy order patterns in Latin America – unpredictable order patterns are expected to continue in Latin America throughout the year. Meanwhile, Kuvan is expected to grow this year, albeit at a slower pace compared to 2014.
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model shows that BioMarin is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.
Positive Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +1.89%. This is a meaningful indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for the shares.
Zacks Rank #3 (Hold): Note that stocks with a Zacks Ranks of #1, #2 and #3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The Sell-rated stocks (#4 and #5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.
The combination of BioMarin’s Zacks Rank #3 and +1.89% ESP makes us confident of an earnings beat.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a few health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AGIO has an Earnings ESP of +75% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. It is scheduled to report second quarter results on Aug 6.
The Earnings ESP for Perrigo Company Public Limited Company PRGO is +1.00% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release second quarter results on Aug 5.
The Earnings ESP for SurModics, Inc. SRDX is +13.33% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report third quarter earnings on Aug 5.
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