Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AEGR is slated to report first-quarter 2015 results on May 4.
Aegerion’s track record has been disappointing with the company beating estimates in only two of the last four trailing quarters with a negative average earnings surprise of 84.88% over these four quarters. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors Influencing First-Quarter 2015
Although Juxtapid will continue to remain the primary growth driver with sales force expansion leading to increased commercial reach in the U.S., Aegerion may continue to experience issues in Brazil due to quarterly fluctuations in demand for Juxtapid due to unpredictable size and timing of the orders.
Additionally, reimbursement challenge for Lojuxta (EU trade name for Juxtapid) in the EU may impact the product’s performance. The company said on its fourth-quarter call that it continues to expect reimbursement approvals in key European countries in 2015.
2015 is expected to be a pivotal year for Aegerion in determining the growth trajectory of Juxtapid, particularly in the context of the prospective approval of some PCSK9 therapies like Repatha and Praluent. Juxtapid being the only marketed product at Aegerion, investor focus will remain on the approval of other PCSK9 therapies. The company is currently working on the expansion of its business in new ex-U.S. markets. We expect Aegerion to update on its expansion plans and progress so far.
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Aegerion is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings. That is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00% since the Most Accurate estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 27 cents.
Zacks Rank: Although Aegerion’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP, we need a positive ESP to be confident of an earnings beat.
However, we caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revision momentum.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Impax Laboratories Inc. IPXL has an Earnings ESP of +15.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter 2015 results on May 11.
Actavis plc ACT has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter 2015 results on May 11.
Acceleron Pharma, Inc. XLRN has an Earnings ESP of +9.30% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter 2015 results on May 7.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Be the first to comment