United Continental Beats on Q4 Earnings, Revs in Line

Zacks

United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) – one of the leading U.S. airline companies – reported higher-than-expected earnings in the fourth quarter of 2014. The company posted adjusted earnings of $1.20 per share, ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14. The earnings beat caused the company’s shares to rise in early trading.

Including special items, the company reported earnings of 7 cents, well below the comparable figure of 37 cents a year-ago.

Quarterly total revenue declined 0.2% year over year to $9.3 billion, but was in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. On a year-over-year basis, passenger revenues increased 1.3% while cargo revenues rose 18.2% mainly buoyed by higher volumes. Other revenues dropped 14.3% from the year-earlier quarter mainly affected by termination of a deal to sell fuel to a third party.

Consolidated passenger revenue per available seat miles (PRASM or unit revenue) rose 0.4% year over year.

Total operating expenses, excluding fuel, profit sharing, special charges and third party expenses, declined 4.7% year over year. Consolidated unit cost or cost per available seat mile (CASM), excluding fuel, third-party business expenses and special items, increased 1.2% year over year to 9.73 cents. Fuel costs declined 14.7% during the quarter (including realized hedging losses).

As of Dec 31, 2014, United Continental Holdings had $5.7 billion of unrestricted liquidity, out of which $1.35 billion was invested in revolving credit facilities. In the fourth quarter, United Continental spent nearly $100 million in share repurchases. The company's return on invested capital was 12.9% in full year 2014.

The company expects its performance to improve in 2015 compared to 2014. CASM in 2015 on a consolidated basis, excluding fuel and third-party business expense, is expected to be approximately flat. In the first quarter of 2015, the company projects pre-tax margin (excluding special items) in the range of 5% to 7%.

Peer Releases

American Airlines Group (AAL) will release its fourth quarter earnings result on January 27, before the commencement of trading. We expect the company to report lower-than-expected earnings in the quarter. The company, though carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), possesses a negative Earnings ESP. According to our model, a stock needs to have both a positive earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for us to confidently predict an earnings beat.

Zacks Rank

United Continental Holdings currently holds a Zacks Rank #1. Equally well ranked stocks in the industry include Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) and Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL).

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