A Shrinking State of Affairs

ZacksThe world outside the U.S. is in a gritty, shrinking state these days. That is not likely to be news for most global investors, who have been watching their global stocks base at low levels of price support.

Is there any hope on the horizon this week from macro data? One can only hope.

We have four major areas in recession right now: parts of Europe, Japan, Brazil, and Russia. All four critical areas get an update from a variety of macroeconomics agencies.

Despite needing to be hidden in its state of gloom, on Wednesday, Japan will return to the focus. Its all industry activity index and the final leading indicator index will be reported. The Bank of Japan monetary policy statement will also hit financial markets — at the same time the U.S. Fed releases its minutes from its prior (Oct. 28-29) meeting.

Also on Wednesday, Brazil will deliver fresh news on its unemployment rate. Expectations are for a 4.9% number. This country is another place sorely in need of good macro news.

On Thursday, focus shifts to Europe. The Eurozone Composite, plus France and Germany, will get news on their Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, respectively. Italy will get its industrial orders numbers.

Also on Thursday, the latest U.K. retail sales report (both excluding and including autos and fuel) will hit markets. The U.K. has been the bright spot in Europe. This number needs to remain a bright spot.

In Latin America on Thursday, Mexico will get its Bloomberg November Economic Survey published. Troubles with protests among the student population will get its first reality check. Mexico is not yet in recession. But turmoil there has raised concerns.

Friday brings the reporting week to a close. Italy will release its GDP data and hourly wage data. This becomes important as a gauge of inflation/deflation conditions in this critical country. Italy hasn’t seen growth since 2011.

There is also Russian wage, retail sales, and unemployment rate data coming out. One final recession to check on, among the four regions global investors have to monitor.

Figure on surprises to be the upside now, given how pessimistic global shares trade already.
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