Zacks Investment Research upgraded shares of AntriaBio, Inc. (ANTB) from N/A to NEUTRAL on October 09, 2014, with a target price of $1.50.
We believe AB101 has peak sales in the area of $2.5 billion by 2024. Only investors today certainly do not need to wait around to 2024 to see shares of AntriaBio move higher. In fact, we believe there are a number of value-creating inflection points on the horizon over the next two years, culminating with the signing of a major development and commercialization partnership for AB101 in late 2016 after the Phase 1 / 2a data has been generated. Based on historical "big pharma / small-biotech" partnerships, we believe AntriaBio can capture 10% of the peak sales of AB101 prior to approval in 2020. This equates to $250 million in milestone payments, of which we assume $100 million will come in the form of an upfront payment, $50 million for the completion of Phase 3 studies, and $100 million for approval. We also believe AntriaBio can capture 20% royalties on sales plus another $500 million in potential back-end milestones. We assume 20% probability of success and 30% discount rate on our 10-year DCF model. This equates to $60 million present value, or $1.50 per share.
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