Is a Beat in the Cards for First Data (FDC) in Q4 Earnings?

First Data Corporation FDC is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2018 results on Feb 6, before market open.

While the company’s top line is expected to be driven by strength across its core merchant acquiring, card issuance, ISV and Clover solutions, the bottom line is likely to be hurt by the normalization of adjusted effective tax rate.

Over the past year, shares of First Data have gained 43.7%, significantly outperforming the 4.6% rise of the industry it belongs to.

Let's check out how things are shaping up for the announcement.

Core Businesses to Drive Top Line

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2018 revenues stands at $2.19 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 12.3%. The expected growth is likely to be driven by strength across its core merchant acquiring, card issuance, ISV and Clover solutions.

Seasonality will have a positive impact on the top line in the to-be-reported quarter. Notably, the company’s all three business segments experience stronger demand in the fourth quarter and weaker demand in the first quarter, relative to second and third quarters.

In third-quarter 2018, total segment revenues of $2.16 billion increased 4% year over year.

Earnings Likely to Decline Year Over Year

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 37 cents, indicating year-over-year decline of 15.9%. The bottom line is likely to be hurt by the normalization of adjusted effective tax rate, which was, however, partially offset by improved operating performance.

In third-quarter 2018, adjusted earnings per share of 35 cents fell short of the year-ago figure by 5 cents.

Our Model Suggests a Beat

According to the Zacks model, a company with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) has a good chance of beating estimates if it also has a positive Earnings ESP. The Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) are best avoided, especially if they have a negative Earnings ESP. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

First Data has an Earnings ESP of +3.17% and a Zacks Rank #2, a combination that increases the odds of an earnings beat.

First Data Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Business Services sector that investors may consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on fourth-quarter 2018 earnings:

Spotify Technology SPOT has an Earnings ESP of +75.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Feb 6. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

IQVIA Holdings IQV has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to report results on Feb 14.

Fiserv FISV has an Earnings ESP of +0.03% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Feb 7.

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