Value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. After all, who wouldn’t want to find stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys, or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value?
One way to find these companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios, many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process. Let’s put Amerisafe, Inc. AMSF stock into this equation and find out if it is a good choice for value-oriented investors right now, or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks:
PE Ratio
A key metric that value investors always look at is the Price to Earnings Ratio, or PE for short. This shows us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock, and is easily one of the most popular financial ratios in the world. The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock’s current PE ratio with: a) where this ratio has been in the past; b) how it compares to the average for the industry/sector; and c) how it compares to the market as a whole.
On this front, Amerisafe has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 17.4, as you can see in the chart below:
This level actually compares pretty favorably with the market at large, as the PE for the S&P 500 compares in at about 21.5. If we focus on the stock’s long-term PE trend, the current level puts Amerisafe’s current PE ratio slightly above its midpoint (which is 15.5) over the past five years.
However, the stock’s PE also compares unfavorably with the industry’s trailing twelve months PE ratio, which stands at 13.4. At the very least, this indicates that the stock is relatively overvalued right now, compared to its peers.
Moreover, we should also point out that Amerisafe has a forward PE ratio (price relative to this year’s earnings) of 18.7, so it is fair to expect an increase in the company’s share price in the near future.
P/S Ratio
Another key metric to note is the Price/Sales ratio. This approach compares a given stock’s price to its total sales, where a lower reading is generally considered better. Some people like this metric more than other value-focused ones because it looks at sales, something that is far harder to manipulate with accounting tricks than earnings.
Right now, Amerisafe has a P/S ratio of about 3.1. This is marginally lower than the S&P 500 average, which comes in at 3.4 right now. Also, as we can see in the chart below, this is somewhat below the highs for this stock in particular over the past few years.
If anything, this suggests some level of undervalued trading—at least compared to historical norms.
Broad Value Outlook
In aggregate, Amerisafe currently has a Value Style Score of B, putting it into the top 40% of all stocks we cover from this look. This makes AMSF a solid choice for value investors, and some of its other key metrics make this pretty clear too.
For example, the P/CF ratio (another great indicator of value) comes in at 12.1, which is slightly better than the industry average of 12.4. Clearly, AMSF is a solid choice on the value front from multiple angles.
What About the Stock Overall?
Though Amerisafe might be a good choice for value investors, there are plenty of other factors to consider before investing in this name. In particular, it is worth noting that the company has a Growth grade of C and a Momentum score of B. This gives AMSF a VGM score—or its overarching fundamental grade—of B. (You can read more about the Zacks Style Scores here >>)
Meanwhile, the company’s recent earnings estimates have been encouraging. The full-year 2017 has seen two estimates go higher in the past sixty days, compared to none lower, while the full-year 2018 estimate has seen a similar trend in the same time period.
This has had a favorable impact on the consensus estimate, as the full-year 2017 consensus estimate has inched up 0.6% in the past two months, while the full-year 2018 estimate has risen about 6.9%. You can see the consensus estimate trend and recent price action for the stock in the chart below:
This somewhat bullish trend is why the stock boasts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and why we are expecting outperformance from the company in the near term.
Bottom Line
Amerisafe is an inspired choice for value investors, as it is hard to beat its incredible lineup of statistics on this front. With a formidable industry rank (top 4% out of more than 250 industries) and top Zacks Rank, Amerisafe looks like a strong value contender. In fact, over the past one year, the sector has clearly outperformed the broader market, as you can see below:
So, it might pay for value investors to delve deeper into the company’s prospects, as fundamentals indicate that this stock could be a compelling pick.
Zacks Editor-in-Chief Goes "All In" on This Stock
Full disclosure, Kevin Matras now has more of his own money in one particular stock than in any other. He believes in its short-term profit potential and also in its prospects to more than double by 2019. Today he reveals and explains his surprising move in a new Special Report.
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