Sirius XM (SIRI) : What’s Ahead for the Stock in Q4 Earnings?

New York-based, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. SIRI is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2016 results before the opening bell on Feb 2.

In the third quarter of 2016, the company had reported in-line earnings and better-than-expected revenues. The company did not outshine the Zacks Consensus Estimate in any of the last four quarters, having reported in-line earnings in three of them.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Earnings Whispers

Our quantitative model does not conclusively show that Sirius XM will beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1(Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Sirius XM is -25.00% as the Most Accurate estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 4 cents per share by a penny. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3.

Please note that we advise investors not to consider Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement.

Factors likely at Play

We are encouraged by the net subscriber growth at Sirius XM. The company ended 2016 with more than 31.3 million subscribers, thereby exceeding its guidance of 1.7 million net subscriber additions during the year. Self-pay net subscriber additions in 2016 were 1.66 million. This also exceeded its projection of 1.6 million. The company expects to exceed its adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.85 billion. The guidance for 2016 free cash flow is also likely to be exceeded.

We are also impressed by the company’s collaborations with leading companies. For example, in Dec 2016, Sirius XM inked a deal with AT&T Inc. T to provide 4G LTE connectivity. We also expect a detailed update on the fourth-quarter conference call dealing with speculations that Sirius XM might buy Pandora Media, Inc.P. However, the company’s high debt levels raise concerns.

A Stock to Consider

Here is a company in the broader Consumer Discretionary sector you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

DISH Network Corporation DISH has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.52%. It is expected to report fourth-quarter results on Feb 16. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise in excess of 100%.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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