Will Boston Scientific (BSX) Disappoint Earnings in Q4?

Zacks

Boston Scientific Corporation BSX is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2015 results before the opening bell on Feb 4, 2016. Last quarter, the company had posted a positive earnings surprise of 4.35%. The four-quarter trailing average beat is pegged at 3.47%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Pricing pressure has been a drag for Boston Scientific over the past several quarters and the company had projected downward pricing pressure even in the fourth quarter. However, on an encouraging note, the company foresees this headwind retracting gradually on improved price management, principally through market segmentation, tiered offerings and standard cost reduction programs. This benefit is likely to be reflected in the fourth quarter although in an insignificant manner.

We are also concerned about Boston Scientific facing severe currency headwind through the recent past. We note that, with the company recording 47% of its sales from the international market, it remains highly exposed to currency fluctuation. With the trend expected to linger, the company’s financials are expected to be hit by fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, going forward. Considering this impact, for full year 2015, Boston Scientific expects currency impact to the tune of approximately $475–$485 million on revenues and 8 cents on EPS for the full year.

Further, sluggish CRM sales over the recent past continue to weigh on the stock. At the beginning of 2015, Boston Scientific predicted a slowdown in worldwide CRM sales for the entire year due to replacement cycle headwinds and competitive launches in the U.S. The company continues to anticipate softness in U.S. CRM sales even in the first quarter of 2016 as it awaits the launch of key new products in the country, like Brady MRI safe system in the first quarter and full X4 Quad system in the first half the year.

However, on an overall basis, we note that Boston Scientific has increased its full year 2015 revenue guidance, buoyed by better-than-expected third quarter results. The company now projects 2015 revenues in the range of $7.470–$7.510 billion, as against the earlier guided $7.275–$7.375 billion (annualized growth of 1 to 2% on a reported basis and growth of 8% on an operational basis). The company has also raised the lower-end of its 2015 adjusted EPS expectation (considering all one-time items including amortized expense). The revised EPS estimate now stands at 90–92 cents as against the earlier projection of 88–92 cents. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate of EPS is 91 cents, at the midpoint of the guidance range.

Over the recent past, Boston Scientific has been targeting product launches to revive sales in its core segments. With several product launches occurring in the second half of 2015, adjusted gross margin for the fourth quarter is expected in the range of 72.5% plus/minus 25 basis points, and adjusted operating margin in the band of approximately 22.75% plus/minus 25 basis points.

We are also optimistic about the company’s gradually improving performance in Interventional Cardiology, led by an innovative portfolio and robust commercial teams globally. The company is consistently gaining share in a number of cardiovascular segments and DES, as a differentiated platform of premier and synergy, continues to build momentum globally and gain worldwide share.

Meanwhile, MedSurg, which had posted 8% growth in the last reported quarter, is expected to demonstrate consistent performance led by endoscopy. Urology and Women's Health are also estimated to grow above market levels on the back of investment strategies in key international geographies.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Boston Scientific is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: BostonScientific’s earnings ESP is 0.00%, since both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 25 cents.

Zacks Rank: BostonScientific has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Note that, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three companies you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

DENTSPLY International Inc. XRAY, earnings ESP of +1.54% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Amedisys Inc. AMED, earnings ESP of +5.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Bayer AG BAYRY, earnings ESP of +4.62% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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