Herbalife Ltd.HLF recently reported mixed third-quarter 2015 results. While earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate on the back of higher sales in China, revenues missed the same on currency headwinds. The company raised its earnings guidance for 2015, but lowered expectations for 2016, due to continued struggle in some of the markets and currency headwinds. Shares fell 2.68% in after-market trading on Nov 3.
This weight management and nutritional products company delivered third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.28 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07 by 19.7%. Earnings were also above the guided range of $1.00–$1.10 per share.
Adjusted earnings, however, declined 11.7% year over year due to currency headwinds, as a major portion of its business is spread overseas. Third quarter adjusted earnings were negatively impacted by 42 cents due to currency headwinds, excluding the impact of Venezuela price increases tied to foreign exchange rate movements.
Net sales of $1.103 billion declined 12% from the prior-year period due to currency headwinds and a 3% decline in volumes. However, the volume decline was narrower sequentially, owing to an improvement in volume trends and positive member metrics due to strategic changes made to the business model. Sales also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.152 billion by 4.3%. The year-over-year sales decline of 12% was wider than the company’s expectation of a decline of 7% to 10%, but the volume decline of 3% was within the expected range of a decline of 1% to 4%. Excluding currency headwinds, sales grew 5% year over year, higher than the company’s guidance range of 1% to 4% growth.
Regionally, Europe, the Middle East and Africa reported 10% volume growth backed by the company’s enhanced marketing plan. China continued to outperform, recording impressive volume point growth of 24%. However, volumes declined in North America, Asia Pacific, Mexico and South & Central America by 6%, 15%, 5% and 8%, respectively.
In the third quarter, the company saw volume point trends improve in the key markets primarily impacted by its marketing plan changes. In fact, the company is seeing sequential improvements in key metrics in these markets and remains encouraged by the positive trends.
On an adjusted basis, gross margin benefited 145 basis points in the quarter, benefiting from price increases and country mix, which were partially offset by the unfavorable impact of foreign currency of approximately 80 basis points.
Fourth-Quarter 2015 Guidance
Herbalife expects sales to decline in the range of 5.5%-8.5% and volumes to be in the range of down 1.5% to up 1.5% in the fourth quarter. On a currency adjusted basis (excluding the impact of Venezuela price increases tied to foreign exchange rate movements), sales are expected to increase 1.6% – 4.6%.
For the fourth quarter, the company expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of 85 cents to 95 cents, which includes an unfavorable currency impact of approximately 27 cents per share. Excluding currency impact (excluding the impact of Venezuela price increases tied to foreign exchange rate movements), adjusted earnings are expected in the range of $1.12 to $1.22 per share.
Raised Full Year 2015 Earnings Guidance
Following better-than-expected third quarter 2015 earnings and improved volume trends, Herbalife raised its earnings guidance range for the full year. We note that this is the third time Herbalife has raised its earnings guidance in 2015.
The new guidance reflects the company’s positive outlook for volume trends for the near term, as a result of strategic decisions taken to improve the business and tremendous leadership by all the senior sales leaders. The company anticipates that these important and effective changes will in turn improve volume growth later this year.
It now expects adjusted earnings in the range of $4.65 to $4.75, up from $4.50 to $4.70 per share expected earlier. This includes currency headwinds of approximately $1.54 per share, including approximately 45 cents for Venezuela currency movements. The full year 2015 guidance also includes 14 cents negative impact from currency compared to guidance provided a quarter ago. Excluding currency impact (excluding the impact of Venezuela price increases tied to foreign exchange rate movements), adjusted earnings are expected in the range of $6.19 to $6.29 per share.
However, the company has lowered its net sales guidance range for 2015. Herbalife now expects sales to decline in the range of 10.4% to 11.1% compared with a decline of 6.5% to 9.5%, guided previously. Volumes are expected to be down 2.8% to 3.5% compared with a decline of 1% to 4%, expected earlier. On a currency adjusted basis (excluding Venezuelan currency devaluation), sales are expected to increase 1% to 1.7% compared with the previous guidance range of down 0.5% to up 2.5%.
Full Year 2016 Guidance
For full year 2016, the company expects adjusted earnings of $4.35 – $4.75 per share, which includes currency impact of 50 cents. On a currency adjusted basis (excluding Venezuelan currency devaluation), adjusted earnings are expected in the range of $4.85 to $5.25 per share.
Herbalife expects sales to grow in the range of 4.5% to 7.5% in 2016, while volumes are expected to increase 2.5% to 5.5%. On a currency adjusted basis (excluding Venezuelan currency devaluation), sales are expected to increase 7% to 10%.
This guidance is significantly lower than full year 2015. The main concern remains currency headwinds. In addition, the forecast includes concerns to maintain growth and pressure brought by regulatory scrutiny, as per Bloomberg.
Herbalife has been under federal investigation for allegations by activist investor William Bill Ackman, hedge fund manager of Pershing Square. Ackman has been keeping an eye on Herbalife since Dec 2012, accusing it of being a pyramid scheme i.e. it employs deceptive marketing practices for improving business. Ackman believes that the nutrition clubs run by Herbalife's distributors focus on recruitment instead of selling products. Ackman's back-to-back allegations have prompted investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Trade Commission, FBI and at least two state attorneys general. Herbalife, on its part, has been denying the charges since 2012 and has full confidence in its business model. However, such allegations have severely impacted its share price and investors’ confidence.
Herbalife is not the only company, which employs sales representatives to sell its products. Other multi-level marketing companies like Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. NUS, USANA Health Sciences Inc. USNA and Avon Products Inc. AVP also follow the same distribution model.
Herbalife has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
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