UBS Group Q3 Earnings Rise over Twofold; Outlook Revised

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UBS Group AG UBS reported third-quarter 2015 net profit attributable to shareholders of CHF 2.07 billion ($2.1 billion), significantly up from CHF 762 million ($833 million) in the prior-year quarter. The results were driven by increased net trading income (up 52% year over year), partially offset by lower net interest income (down 1% year over year), and reduced net fee and commission income (down 4% year over year) as well.

The reported quarter included a net tax benefit of CHF 1.30 billion ($1.34 billion), net charges for provisions for litigation, regulatory and similar matters of CHF 592 million ($614 million), and net restructuring charges of CHF 298 million ($309 million).

Quarter in Detail

UBS Group AG’s adjusted operating income increased 3.2% from the prior-year quarter to CHF 7.08 billion ($7.34 billion). Adjusted operating expenses decreased 16.2% year over year to CHF 6.11 billion ($6.33billion).

UBS Group AG’s pre-tax operating profit on an adjusted basis came in at CHF 979 million ($1.02 billion) in the quarter, compared to an operating loss in the prior-year quarter.

The company’s Investment Bank unit performed well as adjusted operating profit before tax came in at CHF 614 million ($636.66 million) compared to an operating loss in the prior-year quarter. Also, Wealth Management Americas division’s adjusted operating profit before tax increased 11.7% from the prior-year quarter to CHF 277 million ($287.22 million).

However , the Wealth Management division’s adjusted operating profit before tax declined nearly 9% year over year to CHF 698 million ($723.76million) in the quarter. Also, Retail & Corporate division’s adjusted operating profit before tax was down 4% year over year to CHF 428 million ($443.79 million). Additionally, the Asset Management unit’s adjusted operating profit fell 9.3% year over year to CHF137 million ($142.06 million) in the quarter.

Corporate Center reported adjusted operating loss before tax of CHF 1.17 billion ($1.22billion) compared with a loss of CHF 815 million ($891.61 million) in the prior-year quarter.

Capital Position

As of Sep 30, 2015, UBS AG's invested assets were CHF 2,577 billion ($2647.09 billion), down 2.4% year over year. Total assets stood at CHF 979.75 billion ($1.01 trillion), declining 6.2% year over year.

UBS Group’s phase-in BIS Basel III common equity tier (CET) 1 ratio stood at 18.3% as of Sep 30, 2015, compared with 19.1% in the prior-year quarter. Further, phase-in BIS Basel III CET 1 capital decreased 4.6% year over year to CHF 40.49 billion ($41.59 billion) as of Sep 30, 2015.

Phase-in Basel III risk-weighted assets (RWA) decreased 1.4% year over year to CHF 216.31 billion ($222.20 billion). Fully applied RWA also declined nearly 1% year over year to CHF 220.76 billion ($226.76 billion).

On a fully applied basis, UBS Group’s BIS Basel III common equity tier 1 ratio increased 60 basis points (bps) year over year to 14.3%. Swiss systemically relevant banks (SRB) leverage ratio stood at 5.8%, up 40 bps year over year.

Outlook

UBS Group believes that several macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical issues continue to persist and are likely to remain unresolved in the near term. Further, owing to the recently proposed changes to the too big to fail regulatory framework in Switzerland, the company is likely to incur significant ongoing interest costs.

The company also highlighted several concerns including headwinds from interest rates, which have not risen in line with market expectations and the weak performance of the euro against the Swiss franc in the year. However, amid a challenging operating environment, the company remains committed to the execution of its strategies and expects to generate sustainable returns for shareholders.

For fourth-quarter 2015, UBS Group expects to recognize net additional deferred tax assets (DTA) of around CHF 500 million.

Owing to the sale or closure of UBS AG branches and subsidiaries, some foreign currency translation gains and losses earlier booked directly into equity through other comprehensive income will be released into profit and loss. As a result, UBS Group anticipates to record net foreign currency translation losses of around CHF 30 million in the fourth-quarter of 2015 and about CHF 180 million in 2016.

Notably, UBS Group has revised certain external performance targets and expectations for 2016 and beyond.

For the Group, cost to income ratio remained in the range of 60–70%, while short- to medium-term expectation is in the range of 65%–75%. Management aims to achieve adjusted return on tangible equity (RoTE) in 2016 at around the same level as 2015, an adjusted RoTE of about 15% in 2017 and targets an adjusted RoTE of more than 15% from 2018.

In the short to medium term, RWA for the Group are expected to be around CHF 250 billion primarily due to regulatory inflation, while Group BIS Basel III leverage ratio denominator (LRD) is anticipated to be around CHF 950 billion.

In Conclusion

While results do not reflect a strong quarter for UBS Group as several of its units failed to exhibit growth, we remain optimistic as the company managed to sustain profitability amid a number of headwinds witnessed in the quarter. UBS Group AG remains focused on building its capital levels. Restructuring initiatives including cost control are encouraging. However, the stressed operating environment remains a concern.

UBS Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Other Foreign Banks

HDFC Bank Ltd. HDB reported second-quarter fiscal 2016 (ended Sep 30) net profit of INR28.70 billion ($0.44 billion), up 20.5% year over year. Quarterly results continued to reflect top-line growth with both net interest income and non-interest revenues recording a rise. However, elevated operating expenses as well as provisions marginally weighed on the results.

Including certain one-time expenses, Deutsche Bank AG DB reported net loss of €6 billion ($6.7 billion) in the third quarter of 2015, as compared to €92 million ($122 million) in the prior-year quarter. Lower provision for credit losses was the positive. However, higher non-interest expenses due to litigation provisions and decline in revenues were the concerns.

The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc RBS reported third-quarter 2015 earnings attributable to shareholders of £952 million ($1.5 billion), up 6.3% year over year. Results were driven by lower expenses. However, reduced net interest as well as non-interest income were on the downside.

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