Will AVEO (AVEO) Pull a Surprise this Earnings Season?

Zacks

AVEO Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AVEO is expected to report third-quarter 2015 results on Nov 4. AVEO's performance has been impressive with the company beating expectations in three of the four trailing quarters with an average positive earnings surprise of 14.9%.

In the last reported quarter, AVEO delivered a positive earnings surprise of 37.5%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

AVEO, a development-stage biotech company, utilizes its proprietary human response platform for developing treatments targeting cancer. Tivozanib is the lead candidate in AVEO's pipeline. Other pipeline candidates include ficlatuzumab (phase II – non-small cell lung cancer), AV-203 (phase I completed – metastatic or advanced solid tumors) and AV-380 (preclinical – cancer cachexia).

During the third quarter, AVEO entered into an exclusive, worldwide license agreement with Novartis NVS for the development and commercialization of its candidate AV-380. The company also inked an exclusive license agreement with Pharmstandard for the development, manufacturing and commercialization of tivozanib in Russia, Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent States, for all indications except non-oncology ocular conditions. On its third-quarter call, we expect investor focus to remain on pipeline-related updates.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that AVEO is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to likely post an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 14 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: AVEO currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Although the company’s Zacks Rank #3 enhances the predictive power of the ESP, the ESP of 0.00% makes a surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

The Earnings ESP for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALNY is +2.31% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release results on Nov 4.

Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MACK has an Earnings ESP of +2.44% and a Zacks Rank #3. It is expected to release results on Nov 9.

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