J.M. Smucker Lags Q4 Earnings, Sales Beat on Acquisition

Zacks

The J.M. Smucker Company SJM, a leading manufacturer of food products, posted lower-than-expected earnings in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, while revenues came ahead of expectations on acquisitions.

Adjusted earnings of 98 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 99 cents per share by 1% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015. Earnings declined 19.7% from the prior-year quarter as a decline in margins more than offset an increase in sales in the quarter.

Revenue and Margin Details

Net sales in the fourth quarter increased 17% year over year to $1.447 billion and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.321 billion by 9.5%.

The increase was due to favorable sales mix and higher pricing. However, volumes declined, most significantly in the U.S. Retail Coffee segment. Besides the Folgers coffee brand, volumes also declined in Crisco shortening and oils, Pillsbury baking mixes and frostings, and Jif peanut butter.

Net price realization was up 2% as coffee list price increases were partially offset by lower net pricing for peanut butter. The recent acquisition of Big Hearts Pet Brand (Mar 2015) contributed $244.5 million while Sahale Snacks (Sep 2014) added $10 million to fourth quarter sales. However, foreign exchange reduced net sales by $12.9 million in the quarter. Excluding acquisition and currency impact, sales declined 2% to $1.205 billion in the quarter.

Adjusted gross profit margin declined 420 basis points (bps) to 31.8% due to the inventory purchase accounting adjustment. Higher commodity costs, lower volume and currency headwinds also reduced gross profit. Overall, commodity costs were higher due to green coffee costs, which more than offset lower peanut and oil costs.

Adjusted operating profit margin declined 670 bps to 9.6% due to higher general and administrative expenses, offset by lower marketing, selling and distribution expenses.

Fiscal 2015 Results

Adjusted earnings of $5.38 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.83 per share by 7.7% in fiscal 2015. Earnings also declined 4% from the prior year. Net sales of $5.69 billion increased 1.4% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.58 billion.

Segment Performance

With the acquisition of Big Heart, the company added the U.S. Retail Pet Foods segment, representing the sale of pet food and pet snacks to retail customers in the U.S. Pet food and pet snack sales to other than domestic retail customers are included in the International, Foodservice, and Natural Foods segment.

U.S. Retail Coffee Market: The company's biggest segment, U.S. Retail Coffee Market, reported 1% decline in sales to $468.6 million mainly due to lower volume, partially offset by favorable mix and higher net price realization.

The higher price realization resulted from an increase in packaged coffee prices of Folgers and Dunkin' Donuts branded products by an average 9% in Jun 2014 (Read: Smucker Raises Coffee Price) and from an increase in K-cup prices in the U.S. by an average 8% in Jan 2015 (Read: J.M. Smucker Raises Prices of K-Cup Packs by 8%). While the hike in coffee costs resulted in higher price realization during the quarter, it led to a significant decline in coffee volumes.

Segment volume declined 15% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015. This was mainly due to a decrease in Folgers coffee brand as customers recoiled strongly due to rising prices. Volumes of Dunkin' Donuts packaged coffee declined 18% in the quarter, while volumes of the Cafe Bustelo brand increased 2%.

Net sales of Keurig portion packs increased 7% driven by a 3% increase in volumes, primarily of K-Cup packs.

Segment operating margin contracted 520 bps to 23.4% in the quarter due to lower sales volume and the impact of higher costs, which were not fully offset by higher net prices.

U.S. Retail Consumer Foods: U.S. Retail Consumer Foods segment sales declined 8% to $427.5 million due to lower net price realization, primarily in the Pillsbury, Jif and Smucker’s brands and a 6% decline in volumes. The Sahale business contributed $8.1 million to segment net sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015.

Segment profit margin expanded 70 bps to 20.4% in the quarter attributable to lower commodity costs, primarily for peanuts and oils, and other cost benefits, which more than offset lower net price realization.

U.S. Retail Pet Foods: Segment net sales were $239.1 million in the quarter. Segment loss was $15.3 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, representing six weeks of operations since the close of the acquisition. The segment's loss margin was 6.4%, which reflects the impact of the inventory purchase accounting adjustment.

International, Foodservice and Natural Foods: Net sales in the International, Foodservice and Natural Foods segment increased 6% from the previous year quarter to $311.9 million. Excluding Big Heart net sales of $5.4 million, Sahale net sales of $1.9 million and foreign exchange, segment net sales increased 8% from the prior-year period, driven by higher price realization and favorable sales mix. Volumes were flat in the quarter. The segment's profit margin expanded 40 bps to 12.2% in the reported quarter.

Outlook for Fiscal 2016

The company provided guidance for fiscal 2016. The company expects net sales of approximate $8.0 billion, an increase of 40% from 2015 levels, reflecting a full year contribution from Big Heart of approximately $2.4 billion.

Adjusted earnings are expected in the range of $6.80 to $6.95 in 2016, excluding special project costs, $25 million of synergies related to the Big Heart acquisition and amortization charges. The company remains on track to deliver annual synergies of $200 million by the end of 2018. This marks an increase of approximately 15% from the comparable measure in 2015.

Smucker currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked food companies include B&G Foods, Inc. BGS, Post Holdings, Inc. POST and McCormick & Co., Inc. MKC. All of them carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

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