Isis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ISIS is scheduled to report first-quarter 2015 results on May 5. Isis Pharma’s performance has been mixed in 2014 with the company beating earnings expectations in the second and fourth quarters and missing in the first and third quarters of 2014.
In the last reported quarter, Isis Pharma recorded a positive earnings surprise of 108.33%. Overall, the company posted an average positive earnings surprise of 23.15% over the past four quarters.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the first quarter of 2015.
Factors at Play This Quarter
Isis Pharma’s antisense drug delivery platform has resulted in partnerships with leading health care companies including Biogen BIIB and GlaxoSmithKline GSK among others and provides the company with a steady stream of funds in the form of upfront, milestone and other payments.
Isis Pharma’s net revenues, which shot up 100.9% to $84.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, are expected to rise in the first quarter of 2015 as well. During the first quarter, Isis Pharma received several milestone payments from partners Glaxo and Biogen which should boost revenues.
Considering that Isis Pharma’s expenses are also shared by its collaborative partners and it has sufficient cash to move its pipeline into the next stage of development, the company expects operating expenses to rise modestly in 2015.
On the first quarter call, the focus will remain on Isis Pharma’s pipeline. The company expects several pipeline related news with multiple data readouts from several studies including ISIS-TTRRx (transthyretin amyloidosis – phase III with Glaxo), ISIS-SMNRx (spinal muscular atrophy in infants and children – phase III with Biogen) and ISIS-APOCIIIRx (familial chylomicronemia syndrome and partial lipodystrophy – phase III) among others.
Earnings Whispers?
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Isis Pharma is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the first quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. Unfortunately, this is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Zacks ESP: Isis Pharma has an Earnings ESP of -15.79%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is at a loss of 22 cents while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is lower at a loss of 19 cents
Zacks Rank: Isis Pharma’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) lowers the predictive power of ESP because the Zacks Rank #3 when combined with a negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stock to Consider
Here is a health care stock that you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
The Earnings ESP for Actavis ACT is +0.78% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company is scheduled to release results on May 11.
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