Potash Corp. (POT) Misses Earnings Estimates, Trims Outlook

Zacks

Potash Corp.’s POT profits for first-quarter 2015 rose on lower costs and higher prices for potash. The fertilizer giant posted earnings of 44 cents per share in the quarter, a 10% rise from 40 cents per share earned a year ago. Earnings, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents. Profit jumped 8.8% year over year to $370 million.

Revenues for the quarter declined roughly 0.9% year over year to $1,665 million, and also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,705 million.
Gross margin shot up around 18.1% to $667 million in the quarter from $565 million recorded a year ago.

The company cut its earnings guidance for full-year 2015 factoring in higher potash taxes in Saskatchewan and lower expected income from its offshore equity investments.

Segment Review

Potash: Sales volumes remained almost flat year over year at 2.3 million tons in the reported quarter. Sales volumes in North America fell 19% in the quarter. Shipments to offshore markets increased 17% as improved rail logistics enhanced the ability of Canpotex to meet customer demands.

Average realized potash price was $284 per ton, up from $250 per ton from the year ago quarter as realized prices reflected the strong recovery through last year driven by record consumption. Increased production, operational efficiencies and a positive impact from a weakened Canadian dollar lowered per-ton costs by $18 per ton or 15% year over year.

Nitrogen: Sales volumes fell to 1.3 million tons from 1.6 million tons in the year ago quarter. Mechanical challenges at the company’s Lima facility and curtailments in Trinidad related to natural gas supply affected the volumes. Sales for urea and nitrogen solutions were hurt by a delayed start to the spring planting season in North America which led to softer fertilizer demand.

Average realized prices for nitrogen products increased 2% to $351 per ton, supported by higher ammonia pricing. Per-tonne cost of goods sold for the first quarter increased 8% year over year.

Phosphate: Sales volumes of 0.7 million tons was down 16% year over year owing to reduced tons of production as well as the closure of Suwannee River capacity and a higher proportion of the company’s phosphoric acid being directed to products with higher phosphate content. Average realized phosphate price, however, rose 18.6% year over year to $574 per ton, due better market fundamentals and a higher proportion of sales volumes from higher-netback feed, industrial and liquid fertilizer products.

Financials

Potash Corp. exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $217 million, down 59.3% year over year. Long-term debt was flat year over year at $3,709 million as of Mar 31, 2015.

Potash Corp. issued $500 million in 10-year notes in March 2015 at a rate of 3% during the quarter. The proceeds are expected to be used for general corporate purposes and to redeem $500 million of 3.75% notes that mature in Sep 2015.

A weaker Canadian dollar, higher potash prices and changes to potash taxation regulations in Saskatchewan in Mar 2015 led to a rise in provincial mining and other taxes for the first quarter to $95 million, above $54 million recorded in the year ago quarter.

During the quarter, Potash Corp. inked a deal to acquire a 9.5% stake in Heringer, a leading fertilizer distributor in Brazil. The investment is expected to further increase the company’s ability to serve customers in Brazil and provide flexibility for its growing New Brunswick potash operation.

Guidance

Potash Corp., which is among the biggest players in the fertilizer industry along with Agrium AGU, Mosaic MOS and CF Industries CF, stated that it remains encouraged by the strength in global potash demand and expects momentum to accelerate through the second quarter, particularly in offshore markets.

Potash Corp., however, cut its full-year 2015 guidance based on higher Saskatchewan potash taxes and first-quarter performance that came below its initial expectations.

The company trimmed its 2015 earnings guidance to $1.75-$2.05 per share from $1.90-$2.20 per share expected earlier. For the second quarter, it expects earnings to be in the range of 45 cents to 55 cents per share.
For potash, the company expects gross margin of $1.5-$1.8 billion and sales volumes of 9.2-9.7 million tons in 2015. As a result of recent changes to potash taxes in Saskatchewan, the company anticipates provincial mining and other taxes for 2015 to be 20%-22% of potash gross margin.

For nitrogen, reduced global energy costs and higher supply are expected to keep markets subdued compared with 2014. The company expects production run rate to improve from first-quarter levels, but annual sales volumes are expected to be modestly below 2014.

Potash Corp. expects combined nitrogen and phosphate gross margin to be in the range of $1-$1.2 billion in 2015.

In phosphate, the company expects market conditions in 2015 to support a stronger pricing environment compared with 2014. Although the company expects improved production levels to reduce its per-ton cost of goods sold through the balance of 2015, first-quarter production challenges and facility closure are expected to keep sales volumes below 2014 levels and the company’s initial expectations for 2015.

Potash Corp. also lowered its estimate of income from offshore equity investments to a range of $180-$200 million, partly due to a weaker potash pricing environment.

Potash Corp. is a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) stock.

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