Will Horizon Pharma (HZNP) Earnings Surprise This Season?

Zacks

Horizon Pharma plc (HZNP) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2014 results before the opening bell on Nov 6. Last quarter, the company had posted a negative earnings surprise of 12.50%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play This Quarter

Horizon Pharma’s key marketed products including Vimovo (pain), Duexis (rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis) and Rayos (rheumatoid arthritis, polymyalgia rheumatica, psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis) should continue to do well this quarter. The company’s prescription made easy (PME) program coupled with comprehensive co-pay assistance to patients should aid the sales of these products. Additionally, price increases during the quarter should boost top-line growth.

Following the acquisition of Vidara Therapeutics and the addition of Actimmune and PENNSAID 2% (acquired last month) to its portfolio, we expect Horizon Pharma to update its financial guidance for both 2014 and 2015.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Horizon Pharma is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Horizon Pharma is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 19 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Horizon Pharma carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Horizon Pharma’s Zacks Rank #3 when combined with an ESP of 0.00% makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies in the broader health care sector you may want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements –- a positive Zacks Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 –- to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Hospira (HSP) has an earnings ESP of +5.66% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. It is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 6.

Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INFI) has an earnings ESP of +14.94% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. It is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 6.

Prestige Brands Holdings, Inc. (PBH) has an earnings ESP of +2.22% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). It is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 6.

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