Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) is expected to report third-quarter 2014 results on Oct 29. Last quarter, Aegerion had posted an earnings surprise of 21.43%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors at Play
Although Juxtapid should perform well thanks to salesforce expansion in the U.S. which should lead to increased commercial reach for the product, the continued unpredictability in the Brazilian market could affect sales.
Juxtapid being the only marketed product at Aegerion, investor focus will remain on the development of other PCSK9 therapies. Given that Juxtapid is not approved for heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH), Aegerion will face a tough task in maintaining revenues if other candidates are approved for homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia as well as HeFH.
Moreover, reimbursement issues could also impact Juxtapid’s performance.
Earnings Whispers?
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Aegerion is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Aegerion is -25.00% since the Most Accurate estimate is -$0.20 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is -$0.16.
Zacks #3 Rank (Hold): Aegerion’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) has little effect on the predictive power of ESP because the Zacks Rank #3 when combined with a negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements, i.e., a positive Zacks Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 or #3.
Actavis plc (ACT) has an Earnings ESP of +0.97% and holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The company will report third-quarter results on Nov 5 before market opens.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA) has an Earnings ESP of +1.63% and holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Teva will report third-quarter results on Oct 30 before market opens.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) has an Earnings ESP of +28.07% and holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The company will report third-quarter results on Oct 28 after market close.
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