Supernus Confirms 2014 Outlook, Epilepsy Products in Focus

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Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) reaffirmed its 2014 guidance (announced on the second-quarter 2014 earnings call) assuring that it will emerge profitable by year-end. The company also provided an update on its strategic outlook for near-term growth.

Supernus said that it is on track to achieve cash flow breakeven by the end of 2014, with a cash balance of $75 million − $85 million. Moreover, the company continues to expect to deliver profits by the end of the year. Additionally, the company maintains that it will generate revenues of nearly $105 million in 2014.

Supernus is currently following a three-fold strategy comprising its approved products, pipeline candidates and partnership agreements. The company has two approved products in its portfolio − Oxtellar XR (adjunctive therapy of partial seizures in children (6 years − 17 years) and adults) and Trokendi XR (initial monotherapy in patients (≥10 years) suffering from partial onset or primary generalized tonic-clonic seizures as well as adjunctive therapy in patients (≥6 years) with partial onset or primary generalized tonic-clonic seizures or with seizures associated with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome). Both Oxtellar XR (launched in the first quarter of 2013) and Trokendi XR (launched in the third quarter of 2013) are in their early stages of growth.

Supernus expects total peak sales potential of $400 million − $500 million from these products. Both products are protected by patents till 2027.

Meanwhile, Supernus is focused on the development of its pipeline. Last month, SPN-810 received fast track status in the U.S. for the treatment of impulsive aggression in patients suffering from attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The company intends to initiate dosing of patients in a phase III study on SPN-810 in 2015. Supernus has also selected an extended release formulation for SPN-812, which will be the basis for testing SPN-812 in a phase IIb study for ADHD in 2015.

Additionally, Supernus is exploring a range of strategic opportunities including in-licensing products, co-promotion partnerships and potential co-development partnerships for its pipeline products. The company is also targeting merger and acquisition transactions.

Our Take

Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR jointly generated sales of $38.7 million in the first half of 2014. We believe both products should pick up sales significantly in order to meet the revenue guidance for 2014. Herein, it is important to note that the market for epilepsy products is competitive with the presence of products like Potiga, Vimpat, Banzel and Aptiom.

Supernus carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Some well-placed stocks in the pharmaceutical sector are Akorn, Inc. (AKRX), Mallinckrodt plc (MNK) and Endo International (ENDP). All these stocks hold a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

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