On Sep 19, 2013, we upgraded energy services holding company AGL Resources Inc. (GAS) to Neutral from Underperform.
Why the Upgrade?
AGL Resources is a premier electric utility with relatively low risk earnings growth and an expanding dividend that yields a solid 4.0%. Positioned in a niche industry with high barriers to entry, this energy services holding company enjoys near-monopoly status in its area of operation. On top of this, the utility’s best-in-class cost control and recession-proof business model presents a unique opportunity to own a safe stock. Sporting a low beta – translating into less volatility – and a reasonable valuation, we see AGL Resources as a core holding in the energy infrastructure space.
Detailed Analysis
Founded in 1856, Atlanta, Georgia-based AGL is an energy services holding company, whose principal business is gas distribution. Following the acquisition of Naperville, Illinois-based Nicor Inc. in December last year, AGL Resources has become the largest domestic natural gas-only distribution entity with about 4.5 million customers across seven states.
The utility increased its dividend payout by 2% in Feb 2013, maintaining its streak of dividend hikes for eight consecutive years. AGL Resources has a long and consistent dividend paying record. The company has paid dividends in each of the last 263 quarters for more than 60 years. As such, we believe AGL Resources’ dividend to be safe and reliable. On top of this, the utility’s best-in-class cost control and recession-proof business model presents a unique opportunity to own a safe stock.
Overall, we see AGL Resources is a quality utility that provides the security of regularly expanding dividend payments as well as the potential for moderate-to-high capital appreciation. In particular, the safety and reliability of AGL Resources’ distribution operations – that contribute more than three fourths of its operating profits – and the utility’s consistent earnings make it a must-hold for income-oriented investors.
While being incrementally more positive on AGL Resources – one of the major distributors of natural gas in the nation along with the likes of Atmos Energy Corp. (ATO) – its investment in higher-risk unregulated operations, ongoing regulatory uncertainties and the challenging economic environment keeps us on the sidelines.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
While we expect AGL Resources to perform in line with its peers and industry levels in the coming months and advice investors to wait for a better entry point before accumulating units, one can look at Profire Energy Inc. (PFIE) and Dril-Quip Inc. (DRQ) as good buying opportunities. Both these oilfield machineries and equipment providers – sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) – have solid secular growth stories with the potential to rise considerably from current levels.
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