June 30: Jobless Claims Remain High – Economic Highlights

The positive momentum in the stock market over the last few days reflected the growing expectation of a positive outcome for the Greek story. Wednesday’s successful parliamentary vote, to be followed by another vote today, paves the way for the beleagured nation to get the funding lifeline from the EU/IMF combine.

Hardly anyone expects this to be the end of Greece’s troubles. But it nevertheless removes the threat of an imminent default and the associated fear of global financial contagion. Stocks will likely reflect the lingering positivity of a diminishing Greek threat on this last day of the quarter.

With the Greek story finally moving to the sidelines, the market’s focus will shift back to the unsettled domestic economic scene. Growth has remained sub-par in the first half of the year and visibility on the back half of the year remains poor at this stage. This morning’s weak Jobless Claims report is another indicator that the labor market still remains quite weak. The Chicago PMI report later today will give us a preview of the all important June ISM report coming out tomorrow.

Weekly Jobless Claims dropped by 1,000 last week to 428 thousand, maintaining the negative trend of recent weeks. The four-week average, which strips out the inherent volatility in this series, remained almost unchanged at 426.7 thousand (it actually rose by 500). This is the 12th week running that the jobless claims number has remained above the 400 thousand level. The continued elevated level of jobless claims data does not bode well for the June non-farm payroll report coming out on July 8th.

We didn’t have much on the earnings front this morning, though the second quarter earnings season is less than two weeks away now. Constellation Brands (STZ) came ahead of expectations, while Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Apollo Group (APOL) report after the close today.