Getting Hit Hard from All Sides: Global Week Ahead

I think globally to start each week. Do you? Follow me on twitter @johnblank100

In this busy Global Week Ahead, Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement should produce the ‘big’ headline. But there will be serious competition arriving from other sources.

To mid-week, trader’s focus should be on any language in the FOMC statement — and at Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday — which telegraphs a 25 basis-point hike at the Dec. 14th meeting.

Markets price over 70% odds of a December hike (and under 20% odds of a NOV one this week). Bloomberg says 59 out of 76 forecasters expect the Fed to hike before yearend.

After the FOMC statement and Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday, traders then hear from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer. He speaks just after markets close on Friday. A huge number of lesser Fed speeches are also planned during the workday on Friday.

Second, a heavy line-up of macro data can be shortened to these big hitters—

• Tuesday: U.S. ISM manufacturing hits. Expect an unchanged reading.

• Wednesday: ADP’s private nonfarm payroll report hits. Also, Eurozone manufacturing PMIs hit.

• Thursday: The U.S. ISM services PMI hits.

• Friday: Federal nonfarm payrolls and the Labor Dept.’s household survey hits traders with the latest on U.S. job growth, the unemployment rate and wages.

Indeed, a large negative U.S. jobs surprise would cast doubt upon a December Fed hike. I assign that possibility very low odds —given strong +2.9% GDP growth out last week.

Third, don’t overlook U.S. earnings season. It enters its 2nd most active week. 132 firms on the S&P 500 are set to report, after 176 firms reported last week. Activity swiftly falls off, with 31, 20, 15, and 9 reports due on further-out weeks.

Key reports: Facebook, Loews, Pfizer, Time Warner, Starbucks, CBS, Molson Coors, Kellogg, Pitney Bowes, and Metlife.

Fourth and finally, I am utterly sure of this. No need to bookmark! The week is going to be a noisy and nasty political week heading into the November 8th U.S. Presidential election.

A widely-followed polling consensus website assigns 79% odds to a Clinton Presidency, even after the latest email snafu. The site’s forecast is for Clinton to win Florida’s 29 electoral college votes. However, Trump polled four points ahead of Clinton in the Florida popular voteClick to get this free report

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